Robert:
Here is an article from this morning's AP:
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Jobless Claims Drop for Third Week
By LEIGH STROPE, AP Labor Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for unemployment insurance dropped for the third straight week to the lowest level in almost six months, suggesting a slow economic rebound is finally reaching U.S. workers.
For the work week ending Jan. 19, new claims for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to 376,000, the Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Thursday.
The week before, new jobless claims dropped 8,000 to 391,000, according to revised figures.
The more stable four-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, declined 8,750 to 404,250 - the lowest level since Sept. 1.
To cope with the ailing economy, which toppled into recession in March, companies have cut production, trimmed hours and let workers go. But analysts say recent economic reports have provided some signs that the recession appears to be bottoming out.
Despite the optimistic forecasts, many economists say the nation's unemployment rate will continue to rise in the coming months because companies still will be reluctant to hire back workers. December's unemployment rate jumped to a six-year high of 5.8 percent, and economists expect it to top out at close to 7 percent later this year.
To help jump-start the economy, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) cut interest rates 11 times in 2001. Many economists think those rate reductions will help the economy recover by the spring.
For the work week ending Jan. 12, the Labor Department said 42 states and territories posted an increase in initial jobless claims and nine had a decrease.
The largest increases were in North Carolina, 38,951; California, 34,040; South Carolina, 33,264; Texas, 9,084 and Michigan, 7,633. California increases were from layoffs in the electronics, machinery and service industries, while South Carolina's were in manufacturing industries. North Carolina officials did not offer an explanation for the layoffs.
The biggest decreases in claims were in New York, 15,929; Wisconsin, 4,458; Iowa, 2,658; Arkansas, 1,774; and Massachusetts, 1,477. Wisconsin reported fewer layoffs in the construction, retail, service and manufacturing industries. New York officials did not offer a reason for the drop.
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Now, there are only two reasons for this drop. Either the economy is in fact beginning to rebound, OR once individuals have received their obligatory six-months of unemployment insurance, they are no longer listed with "active" claims. Perhaps, they drop off the "books" so to speak and are no longer counted. This would mean thousands, perhaps even a million or so would drop off the unemployment rolls figures every six months. That would indicate a problem far worse than expected. Once unemployment insurance is exhausted, there aren't any other options than flipping burgers.
Just a hypothesis.
